On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Don’t Blame the Polls

“We knew it would be record-high turnout, but we had to figure out who the extra voters would be,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Still, the polls were very good indicators of what was going to happen. The misses weren’t huge.”

So where were the polls off the mark?

In Florida, Republican turnout exceeded expectations. Nonpartisan polls in the last two weeks had Andrew Gillum, the Democrat, leading by between 4 and 7 points. He lost by half a point (barring a recount).

In Indiana, polls for the Senate race since October showed results ranging from a big win for the Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly, to a tie, to a narrow loss. In the end, he was crushed by Mike Braun, losing by…

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